Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-385
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
02 Nov 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
The concept of credible duration for the Regional Frequency Analysis including historical data: application of the FAB method to a skew storm surge database
Roberto Frau1,2, Marc Andreewsky1, and Pietro Bernardara3 1EDF R&D Laboratoire National d’Hydraulique et Environnement (LNHE), Chatou, 78401, France
2Université Paris-Est, Saint-Venant Hydraulics Laboratory (ENPC, EDF R&D, CEREMA), Chatou, 78401, France
3CEREA, Joint Laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech – EDF R&D, Université Paris-Est, 77455 Marne la Vallée, France
Abstract. The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual probability of occurrence of rare events associated to a return period up to 103 years. The characterisation of extreme events is carried out by statistical methods based on the extreme value theory. Usually, these methods apply to very short observations series and the uncertainties associated to high return periods are too wide to be used in a design approach. Nowadays, large and spatially distributed dataset are available and historical data approaches are providing new insight on past events. Combining local information with regional information and historical information will increase the precision and the reliability of low probability extrapolation. However, the past events data provided by single events analysis are not continuous and exhaustive as systematic records. Can we guess how exhaustive the historical records are and how many historical events have been missed by the observations? This is a very important information for the estimation of the correct empirical frequency of the extreme events. To answer these questions, the FAB method is introduced here. It is based on a new definition of the credible duration, representing the estimate duration of the support of the data.

Citation: Frau, R., Andreewsky, M., and Bernardara, P.: The concept of credible duration for the Regional Frequency Analysis including historical data: application of the FAB method to a skew storm surge database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-385, in review, 2017.
Roberto Frau et al.
Roberto Frau et al.
Roberto Frau et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 95 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
72 20 3 95 0 0

Views and downloads (calculated since 02 Nov 2017)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 02 Nov 2017)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 95 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 92 with geography defined and 3 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 18 Nov 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Regional analysis and historical data can reduce the uncertainties on the extreme estimations of return levels. Historical data are usually not continuous in time and the real need to employ them on the extreme value analysis leads to formulate a credible hypothesis supported by several scientific studies. The FAB method enables to perform a regional analysis including historical data. This method is applied to a skew surge database in order to estimate the extreme return levels.
Regional analysis and historical data can reduce the uncertainties on the extreme estimations of...
Share