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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-366
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 25 Oct 2017

Research article | 25 Oct 2017

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Track-dependency of tropical cyclone risk in South Korea

Chaehyeon C. Nam1, Doo-Sun R. Park1, Chang-Hoi Ho1, and Deliang Chen2 Chaehyeon C. Nam et al.
  • 1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
  • 2Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden

Abstract. In tropical cyclone (TC) risk assessment, many of previous studies have attempted to construct the statistical relationship of TC damage and three risk elements–exposure, vulnerability, and hazard. For hazard parameters, central minimum pressure, maximum wind speed, and size have been widely utilized while track was not mainly considered as one of critical hazard parameters. This study shows that, in a decision tree analysis for TCs that made landfall in South Korea during 1979–2010, track is the primary factor to predict damage occurrence. Small track deviations ≤250km could distinctively change the damage maps for South Korea. This significant track-dependency of TC risk exists because TC track is responsible for realization of the other hazards from a potential to an active hazard, such as wind gusts or downpours at a given settlement. TC track determines the overall severity and spatial distribution of the active hazards by changing the combination of multiple factors: physical geography experience, duration of influence, and relative position of dangerous semicircle side of the TC. These results indicate that large uncertainty in future track projection may seriously mislead future TC risk modelling because trivial track projection error alone can produce severe error in damage projection even when TC frequency and intensity value is precise and accurate.

Chaehyeon C. Nam et al.
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Chaehyeon C. Nam et al.
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Short summary
This study shows that, for TCs that made landfall in South Korea during 1979–2010, track is the primary factor to predict damage occurrence. Our results suggest that large uncertainty in future track projection may seriously mislead future TC risk modelling because trivial track projection error alone can produce severe error in damage projection even when TC frequency and intensity value is precise and accurate.
This study shows that, for TCs that made landfall in South Korea during 1979–2010, track is the...
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