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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-364
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 03 Nov 2017

Research article | 03 Nov 2017

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) and is expected to appear here in due course.

Tsunami fragility curve using field data and numerical simulation of the 2015 tsunami in Coquimbo, Chile

Rafael Aránguiz1,2, Luisa Urra3, Ryo Okuwaki4, and Yuji Yagi5 Rafael Aránguiz et al.
  • 1Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción
  • 2National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CONICYT/FONDAP/1511007 (CIGIDEN)
  • 3Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics for Disaster Management, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Japan
  • 4Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan
  • 5Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract. The last earthquake which affected Coquimbo city took place in September 2015, with localized damage observed in low areas of the city. In addition, another seismic gap north of the 2015 earthquake rupture area has been identified; therefore, a significant earthquake and tsunami could occur in the near future. The present paper develops the tsunami fragility curve for the city of Coquimbo based on field survey data and tsunami numerical simulations. The inundation depth of the 2015 Chile tsunami in Coquimbo was estimated by means of numerical simulation with the NEOWAVE model and 5 nested grids with a maximum grid resolution of 10m. The fragility curve exhibited behavior similar to that of other curves in plain areas in Japan, where low damage was observed at relatively high inundation depths. The new fragility curve was used to estimate the damage by possible future tsunamis in the area. The damage assessment showed that ~50% of the structures in the lower area of Coquimbo have a high probability of damage in case of a tsunami generated off the coast of the study area if the city is rebuilt with the same type of structures.

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Rafael Aránguiz et al.
Rafael Aránguiz et al.
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Short summary
The present research applies a methodology to estimate tsunami damage in a city in northern Chile which was recently affected by a tsunami and is now under reconstruction. The results are in good agreement with other results in plain areas in Japan, where low damage was observed at relatively high inundation depths. In addition, the damage assessment showed significant impact in the city in case of a new tsunami event if the city is rebuilt with the same type of structures.
The present research applies a methodology to estimate tsunami damage in a city in northern...
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