Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-362
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
25 Oct 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database
Teresa Vaz, José Luís Zêzere, Susana Pereira, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, and Ivânia Quaresma Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, 1600-276, Portugal
Abstract. This work proposes a comprehensive methodology to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation, using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall dataset. The methodology is applied to the Lisbon region and include the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (quantity-duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds is assessed and validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics.

Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, such thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km distance from the rain gauge. The obtained rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression have a good performance in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events, established in the zone between the lower limit threshold and the upper limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.


Citation: Vaz, T., Zêzere, J. L., Pereira, S., Oliveira, S. C., Garcia, R. A. C., and Quaresma, I.: Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-362, in review, 2017.
Teresa Vaz et al.
Teresa Vaz et al.
Teresa Vaz et al.

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