Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
09 Oct 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches
Marc Sanuy1, Enrico Duo2, Wiebke S. Jäger3, Paolo Ciavola2, and José A. Jiménez1 1Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima (LIM), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – Barcelona Tech, Barcelona, Jordi Girona 1–3, 08034, Spain
2Dep. of Physics and Earth Science, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat 1, Ferrara, 44122, Italy
3Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, The Netherlands
Abstract. Integrated risk assessment approaches to support coastal managers’ decisions when designing plans are increasingly becoming an urgent need. To enable efficient coastal management, possible present and future scenarios must be included, disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. In this work, the Bayesian Network approach to coastal risk assessment was applied and tested at two Mediterranean sandy coasts (Tordera Delta in Spain and Lido degli Estensi–Spina in Italy). Process-oriented models are used to predict hazards at the receptor scale based on a large number of storm characteristics. Hazards are converted into impacts through vulnerability relations. A Bayesian Network integrates all results to link forcing characteristics with expected impacts through conditional probabilities. The tool has been proven successful in reproducing current coastal responses at both sites. It has also shown great utility for scenario comparisons, and is able to output significant impact change trends, despite the inherent uncertainties of the approach. This work highlights the advantages of using such a tool for present and future coastal risk assessment and planning.

Citation: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
Marc Sanuy et al.
Marc Sanuy et al.
Marc Sanuy et al.

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