Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-330
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
12 Oct 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Development of bridge failure model and fragility curves for infrastructure overturning and deck sliding due to lahars
Joaquín Dagá1, Alondra Chamorro2, Hernán de Solminihac3, and Tomás Echaveguren4 1Master Student of Engineering Sciences, Department of Engineering and Construction Management, Faculty of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
2Associate Professor, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Research Associate, National Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN), Santiago, Chile
3Professor, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Director of the Engineering and Construction Management Department, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Planning Director of the Latin American Center of Economic and Social Policies UC (CLAPES UC), Santiago, Chile
4Associate Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad de Concepción. Researcher, National Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN), Concepción, Chile
Abstract. One of the main volcanic processes affecting road infrastructure are lahars, which are flows of water and volcanic material running down the slopes of a volcano and river valleys. Empirical evidence has shown that lahars generate permanent deterioration in bridges and culverts, however, no models are available to estimate failure probability and vulnerability of these structures exposed to this hazard. In this paper, a bridge failure model due to lahars is proposed and, based on this, fragility curves for infrastructure overturning and deck sliding are developed. The failure model considers the limit state of infrastructure overturning moment and the tangential force over the deck caused by lahars, considering bridges with and without piers. Analytical models to estimate these loads were calibrated to simulate the effect of lahars over bridges for the development of fragility curves. Monte Carlo was applied to simulate the probability of failure given by different lahar depths, which is a continuous variable correlated to other lahar flow characteristics, such as velocity and scour demand. Fragility curves of bridges were parameterized by maximum likelihood estimation, using a cumulative lognormal distribution. Parametrized fragility curves were successfully validated for a 95 % confidence level using data of 14 bridges that were reached by lahars in the last 50 years. Validated models confirm that decks fail mainly due to piers and/or abutment overturning rather than sliding forces. Moreover, it was concluded that bridges with piers are more vulnerable to lahars. The developed models can be applied to existing and new bridges exposed to volcanic hazards to estimate the failure probability given an expected lahar intensity. Further research is being conducted to develop an application tool to simulate the effects of expected lahars in existing bridges of a road network.

Citation: Dagá, J., Chamorro, A., de Solminihac, H., and Echaveguren, T.: Development of bridge failure model and fragility curves for infrastructure overturning and deck sliding due to lahars, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-330, in review, 2017.
Joaquín Dagá et al.
Joaquín Dagá et al.
Joaquín Dagá et al.

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Short summary
One of the main volcanic processes affecting road infrastructure are lahars, which are flows of water and volcanic material running down the slopes of a volcano. In this paper, a bridge failure model due to lahars is proposed and, based on this, fragility curves are developed and parameterized. The fragility curves were validated for a 95 % confidence level using empirical data. Validated models confirm that decks fail mainly due to piers and/or abutment overturning rather than sliding forces.
One of the main volcanic processes affecting road infrastructure are lahars, which are flows of...
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