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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-328
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
13 Sep 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds
David J. Peres1, Antonino Cancelliere1, Roberto Greco2, and Thom A. Bogaard3 1Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
2Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile Design Edilizia e Ambiente, Università degli Studi della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Aversa (CE), Italy
3Water Resources Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Abstract. Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide–triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts that the uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants have on the assessment of landslide intensity–duration early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on an ideal synthetic database of rainfall and landslide data, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios, that allow to simulate possible errors in landslide triggering instants, as derived from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed by combining different criteria to single-out rainfall events from a continuous series and different temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily). The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant. Errors influence thresholds in a way that they are generally underestimated. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall, limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

Citation: Peres, D. J., Cancelliere, A., Greco, R., and Bogaard, T. A.: Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-328, in review, 2017.
David J. Peres et al.
David J. Peres et al.
David J. Peres et al.

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Short summary
We investigate the influence of uncertain identification of triggering instants on landslide early warning thresholds. Different realistic scenarios of landslide data retrieval are hypothesized to simulate uncertainty in triggering instants. Combined impacts of uncertainty respect to temporal discretization of data (hourly or daily) and criteria for singling-out rainfall events are assessed as well. Results show that thresholds can be significantly affected by these uncertainty sources.
We investigate the influence of uncertain identification of triggering instants on landslide...
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