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Discussion papers | Copyright
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 18 Aug 2017

Research article | 18 Aug 2017

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Multi-hazard fragility analysis for fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake and flood prone areas

Sergey Tyagunov1, Sergiy Vorogushyn2, Cristina Muñoz Jimenez1, Stefano Parolai1, and Kevin Fleming1 Sergey Tyagunov et al.
  • 1GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtzstrasse 7, D-14467, Potsdam, Germany
  • 2GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4 – Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. The paper presents a methodological framework for multi-hazard fragility analyses for fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake and flood prone areas. The methodology and results are an integral part of the multi-hazard (earthquake-flood) risk study implemented within the framework of the EU FP7 project MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe) for the area around Cologne, Germany. The study area covers the Rhine River reach and adjacent floodplains between the gauges Andernach and Düsseldorf. Along this domain, the inhabited areas are partly protected by earthen embankments (dikes or levees), which may be prone to failure in case of exceptional floods and/or earthquakes. The main focus of the study is to consider the damage potential of the dikes within the context of the possible interaction between the two hazards. The fragility of the earthen dikes is analyzed in terms of liquefaction potential characterized by the factor of safety. Uncertainties in the geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters are considered by using a Monte Carlo approach. The damage potential of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface showing the damage probability as a function of both seismic ground shaking and flood water level. The obtained results can be used for multi-hazard risk assessment in earthquake and flood prone areas and, in particular, are intended for comprehensive risk assessment in the area around the city of Cologne.

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Sergey Tyagunov et al.
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Short summary
A simplified methodological framework for multi-hazard (earthquake and flood) fragility and damage risk analyses of fluvial earthen dikes is presented. The system of earthen dikes along the Rhine River in the area around Cologne is considered with respect to their possible damage due to liquefaction induced by seismic ground shaking in combination with flooding. It is emphasized that the potential interactions between the two hazards should not be ignored in risk analyses and decision making.
A simplified methodological framework for multi-hazard (earthquake and flood) fragility and...