Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-285
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
07 Sep 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Physically based approaches incorporating evaporation for early warning predictions of rainfall-induced landslides
Alfredo Reder1,2, Guido Rianna2, and Luca Pagano1 1Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II , Naples, 80125, Italy
2Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division, CMCC Foundation, Capua, 81043, Italy
Abstract. In the field of rainfall-induced landslides on sloping covers, models for early warning predictions require an adequate trade-off between two aspects: prediction accuracy and promptness. When a cover's initial hydrological state is a determining factor in triggering landslides, taking evaporative losses into account (or not) could significantly affect both aspects. This study evaluates the performance of three physically based predictive models, converting precipitation and evaporation fluxes into hydrological variables useful in assessing slope safety conditions. Two of the models incorporate evaporation, with one representing evaporation as both a boundary and internal phenomenon, and the other only a boundary phenomenon. The third model totally disregards evaporation. Model performances are assessed by analysing a well-documented case study involving a two-meter thick sloping volcanic cover. The large amount of monitoring data collected for the soil involved in the case study, reconstituted in a suitably equipped lysimeter, makes it possible to propose procedures for calibrating and validating the parameters of the models. All predictions indicate a hydrological singularity at the landslide time (alarm). Comparison of the models’ predictions also indicates that the greater the complexity and completeness of the model, the lower the number of predicted hydrological singularities when no landslides occur (false alarms).

Citation: Reder, A., Rianna, G., and Pagano, L.: Physically based approaches incorporating evaporation for early warning predictions of rainfall-induced landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-285, in review, 2017.
Alfredo Reder et al.
Alfredo Reder et al.
Alfredo Reder et al.

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Short summary
Recently, landslides affecting pyroclastic covers of Campania Region induced victims and huge costs. Then, the development of Early Warning Systems represents a key issue for the area. However, the features of such soils make challenging the development of reliable predictive tools. The relevance of accounting for evaporative losses in slope hydrological balance regulating safety conditions is then discussed. To this aim, the landslide occurred in Nocera Inferiore in 2005 is used as test case.
Recently, landslides affecting pyroclastic covers of Campania Region induced victims and huge...
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