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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-281
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
04 Aug 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
The Effect of Alternative Seismotectonic Models on PSHA Results – a Sensitivity Study for the Case of Israel
Matan Avital1, Michael Davis2, Ory Dor2, and Ronnie Kamai3 1Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, 84105, Israel
2Ecolog Engineering, Inc. Rehovot, 7670203, Israel
3Department of Structural Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, 84105, Israel
Abstract. We present a full PSHA sensitivity analysis for two sites in southern Israel – one in the near-field of a major fault system and one farther away. The PSHA analysis is conducted for alternative source representations, using alternative model parameters for the main seismic sources, such as slip-rate and Mmax, among others. The analysis also considers the effect of the Ground-Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) on the hazard results. In this way, the two types of epistemic uncertainty – modelling uncertainty and parametric uncertainty are treated and addressed. We quantify the uncertainty propagation by testing its influence of the final calculated hazard, such that the controlling knowledge gaps are identified and can be treated in future studies. We find that current practice in Israel, as represented by the most current version of the building code grossly underestimates the hazard, due to a combination of factors, including source definitions as well as the GMPE used for analysis.

Citation: Avital, M., Davis, M., Dor, O., and Kamai, R.: The Effect of Alternative Seismotectonic Models on PSHA Results – a Sensitivity Study for the Case of Israel, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-281, in review, 2017.
Matan Avital et al.
Matan Avital et al.
Matan Avital et al.

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Short summary
We perform a hazard sensitivity study for two sites in Israel, exploring effects of uncertainty on the calculated seismic hazard. We account for uncertainty in the earthquake source properties, such as their geometric representation and seismic activity. We also account for uncertainty in the wave propagation path, by using alternative models to describe the ground motion calculations. We conclude that the current practice in Israel should be updated as it is probably underestimating the hazard.
We perform a hazard sensitivity study for two sites in Israel, exploring effects of uncertainty...
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