Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-280
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
04 Aug 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model
Raquel Melo1, Theo van Asch2, and José L. Zêzere1 1Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal
2Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Abstract. Only two months after a huge wildfire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in Central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economical damage, although no life was lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows occurred during the event as well as to calculate by back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flows run-out at the basin scale. Due to the lack of quantitative information to validate these models, the results were compared with historical references of debris flow events in the study area. Six streams were identified, where debris flows occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives. The worst-case scenario carried out at the basin scale shows a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings at the present day.

Citation: Melo, R., van Asch, T., and Zêzere, J. L.: Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-280, in review, 2017.
Raquel Melo et al.
Raquel Melo et al.
Raquel Melo et al.

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