Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-269
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
26 Jul 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides
Roberto Greco1 and Luca Pagano2 1University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Naples, 80125, Italy
2University of Naples Federico II, Naples, 80125, Italy
Abstract. To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems, which rely on prompt forecasting or recognizing of the catastrophic phenomena and temporarily reducing the exposure of people, preventing or limiting victims. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should concern, above all, the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in early warning systems, by discussing their aims, the evolution stage of the phenomenon where they should be incardinated, and their architecture, regardless of the specific application field. With reference to two different phenomena, namely flow-like landslide and earth flows, both characterized by rapid evolution, the paper describes, by means of three examples, some alternative approaches to the development of the predictive tool and to its implementation in an EWS.

Citation: Greco, R. and Pagano, L.: Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-269, in review, 2017.
Roberto Greco and Luca Pagano
Roberto Greco and Luca Pagano
Roberto Greco and Luca Pagano

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The paper focuses on the main features characterizing predictive models working in early warning systems (EWS), by discussing their aims, the evolution stage of the phenomenon where they should be incardinated, and their architecture, regardless of the specific application field. With reference to flow-like landslide and earth flows, some alternative approaches to the development of the predictive tool and to its implementation in an EWS are described.
The paper focuses on the main features characterizing predictive models working in early warning...
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