Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-262
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
21 Aug 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Potential Impact of Landslide and Debris Flow on Climate Extreme – A Case Study of Xindian Watershed in Taiwan
Shih-Chao Wei1, Hung-Ju Shih2, Hsin-Chi Li2, and Ko-Fei Liu1 1Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan
2National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei City 23143, Taiwan
Abstract. Sedimentary produced and transported in mountainous area under extreme rainfall by climate change is a challenged issue in recent years, especially in a watershed scale. The scenario approach with coupled simulation by different models could be one of a solution for further discussion under warming climate. With properly model selection, the simulation of projected rainfall, landslide, and debris flow are integrated by fully connection between models. Moreover, a case in Xindian watershed upstream the capital of Taiwan is chose for studying, and two extreme scenarios in late 20th and late 21st century are selected for comparison on changing climate. With sequent simulation, the chain process and compounded disaster can be considered in our analysis. The potential effects of landslides and debris flows are compared between current and future, and the likely impact in selected watershed are discussed under climate extreme. Result shows the unstable sediment volume would enlarge 29 % in terms of projected extreme event. The river bed may have strong variation by serious debris flow and increase about 10 % elevation in main channel. These findings also highlight the increasing risk in stable water supply, isolated village effect, and other secondary disaster in this watershed. A practical reference could be provided by some critical information in our result for long-term adapted strategies.

Citation: Wei, S.-C., Shih, H.-J., Li, H.-C., and Liu, K.-F.: Potential Impact of Landslide and Debris Flow on Climate Extreme – A Case Study of Xindian Watershed in Taiwan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-262, in review, 2017.
Shih-Chao Wei et al.
Shih-Chao Wei et al.

Model code and software

Numerical simulation of debris flow with application on hazard area mapping
K.-F. Liu and M. C. Huang
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-005-9020-4
Shih-Chao Wei et al.

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Short summary
We proposed an integrated simulation including rainfall, landslides, and debris flows. In this simulation, the chain process is considered, and the potential effect or likely impact of compound disaster are also discussed on a watershed scale. Under extreme scenarios, the compound disaster becomes more series in our results and lead to increasing risk of stable water supply, isolated village effect, and other secondary disasters. A practical reference could be provided for further policy-making.
We proposed an integrated simulation including rainfall, landslides, and debris flows. In this...
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