Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-243
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
10 Jul 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment
Stefania Bartolini1, Carmen López2, Laura Becerril1, Rosa Sobradelo3, and Joan Martí1 1Group of Volcanology, (SIMGEO-UB) CSIC, Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera, c/Lluis Sole Sabaris s/n, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
2Observatorio Geofísico Central, Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN), c/Alfonso XII, 3, 28014 Madrid, Spain
3Willis Research Network and Analytics Technology, Willis Towers Watson, London, UK
Abstract. The correct identification and interpretation of unrest indicators are useful for forecasting volcanic eruptions, delivering early warnings, and understanding the changes occurring in a volcanic system prior to an eruption. Such indicators play an important role in upgrading previous long-term volcanic hazard assessments and help grasp the complexities of the preceding period of eruptive activity. In this work, we present a retrospective analysis of the 2011 unrest episode on the island of El Hierro that preceded a submarine eruption. We use seismic and surface deformation monitoring data to compute the susceptibility analysis (QVAST tool) and to study the evolution over time of the unrest (ST-HASSET tool). Additionally, we show the advantages to be gained by using continuous monitoring data and hazard assessment e-tools to upgrade spatio-temporal analyses and thus visualize more simply the development of the volcanic activity.

Citation: Bartolini, S., López, C., Becerril, L., Sobradelo, R., and Martí, J.: A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-243, in review, 2017.
Stefania Bartolini et al.
Stefania Bartolini et al.
Stefania Bartolini et al.

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Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system, and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and...
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