Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-216
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
17 Jul 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Ensemble Projection of the Sea Level Rise Impact on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Coastal Bangladesh
Mansur Ali Jisan, Shaowu Bao, and Leonard J. Pietrafesa Department of Coastal and Marine Systems Science, Coastal Carolina University, Conway, South Carolina, United States
Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present day inundation scenario, track of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR.

Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, that’s why a probable range of future change in inundated area was calculated by taking in to consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing.

The model outputs showed that, the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % higher than the present day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 meter occurs during the mid-21st century climate scenario. Similar to that, an increasing trend was found for the end of the 21st century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 meter, the inundated area would become 53 % higher than the present day case.

Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for the changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 21 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr in Barisal station if a Sea Level Rise of 0.26 meter occurs at the middle of the 21st century. Similar to that, an increase of 37 % was found in storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 meter in this location for the end of the 21st century climate scenario.

Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 meters in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500–3750 km2 whereas for present day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2.

These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and extent of inundated area.


Citation: Jisan, M. A., Bao, S., and Pietrafesa, L. J.: Ensemble Projection of the Sea Level Rise Impact on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Coastal Bangladesh, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-216, in review, 2017.
Mansur Ali Jisan et al.
Mansur Ali Jisan et al.
Mansur Ali Jisan et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 106 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
82 22 2 106 1 3

Views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jul 2017)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jul 2017)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 106 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 100 with geography defined and 6 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 23 Jul 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Findings from this study show that a huge number of new areas in coastal Bangladesh are going to face the impact of storm surge inundation as well as an increase in surge level due to the effect of sea level rise. These results are important for the local government to consider while they make new management and policy decisions and to improve tropical preparedness plans by increasing numbers of shelters and heights.
Findings from this study show that a huge number of new areas in coastal Bangladesh are going to...
Share