Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-177
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
24 Jul 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Estimations of statistical dependence as joint return period modulator of compound events. Part I: storm surge and wave height
Thomas I. Petroliagkis Joint Research Center, Ispra, I-21027, Italy
Abstract. The possibility of utilising statistical dependence methods in coastal flood hazard calculations is investigated, since flood risk is rarely a function of just one source variable but usually two or more. Source variables in most cases are not independent as they may be driven by the same weather event, so their dependence, which is capable of modulating their joint return period, has to be estimated before the calculation of their joint probability. Dependence and correlation may differ substantially from one another since dependence is focused heavily on tail (extreme) percentiles. The statistical analysis between surge and wave is performed over 32 river ending points along European coasts. Two sets of almost 35-year hindcasts of storm surge and wave height were adapted and results are presented by means of analytical tables and maps referring to both correlation and statistical dependence values. Further, the top 80 compound events were defined for each river ending point. Their frequency of occurrence was found to be distinctly higher during the cold months while their main low-level flow characteristics appear to be mainly in harmony with the transient nature of storms and their tracks. Overall, significantly strong values of positive correlations and dependencies were found over the Irish Sea, English Channel, south coasts of the North Sea, Norwegian Sea and Baltic Sea, with compound events taking place in a zero-lag mode. For the rest, mostly positive moderate dependence values were estimated even if a considerable number of them had correlations of almost zero or even negative value.

Citation: Petroliagkis, T. I.: Estimations of statistical dependence as joint return period modulator of compound events. Part I: storm surge and wave height, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-177, in review, 2017.
Thomas I. Petroliagkis
Thomas I. Petroliagkis
Thomas I. Petroliagkis

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Short summary
Compound events, that is, two or more events occurring simultaneously, can lead to high impacts, even if the two single events are not extreme per se, i.e., only their combination. The possibility of utilising statistical dependence methods in coastal flood hazard calculations is investigated. The statistical analysis between storm surge and wave height is performed over 32 river ending points along European coasts. The top-80 compound events are defined and their low-level flow is also studied.
Compound events, that is, two or more events occurring simultaneously, can lead to high impacts,...
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