Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-150
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
03 May 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Coastal flooding risk associated to tropical cyclones in a changing climate. Application to Port of Spain (Trinidad and Tobago)
Cristina Izaguirre, Iñigo J. Losada, Antonio Espejo, Javier Diez-Sierra, and Pedro Díaz-Simal Environmental Hydraulics Institute “IH Cantabria”, Universidad de Cantabria, Spain
Abstract. The aim of this paper is to provide a methodology to assess flooding risk associated to the combination of extreme flooding levels driven by Tropical Cyclone (TCs) and relative sea level rise (RSLR). The approach is based on the risk conceptual framework where the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are defined and combined to address flooding socioeconomic consequences in Port of Spain for present and future climate (RCP8.5 in 2050). Hazard and flooding impact are assessed using a combination of statistical methods and dynamical simulations, together with a high resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Combining flooding maps, exposure databases and vulnerability damage functions we have evaluated socioeconomic consequences in terms of affected population and economic damage. Besides, we have quantified the uncertainty in the results coming from the sea level rise projections and vulnerability information. The application of the methodology indicates increasing flooding threat for the future climate that could exacerbate economic losses in case of inaction. The expected annual damage (EAD) in present climate is 12.24 MUSD while in 2050 it will reach 15.22 [14.88–15.67] MUSD.

Citation: Izaguirre, C., Losada, I. J., Espejo, A., Diez-Sierra, J., and Díaz-Simal, P.: Coastal flooding risk associated to tropical cyclones in a changing climate. Application to Port of Spain (Trinidad and Tobago), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-150, in review, 2017.
Cristina Izaguirre et al.
Cristina Izaguirre et al.
Cristina Izaguirre et al.

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Short summary
Coastal flooding driven by Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and enhanced by climate change is a crucial threat in TC areas. Port of Spain is a Caribbean city with stakeholders showing interest in obtaining threat insight for 2050 to support medium-term planning. We propose and apply a methodology, based on the hazard-exposure-vulnerability approach, with an integrative nature providing useful information to the policymakers, regarding their needs and available data and resources.
Coastal flooding driven by Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and enhanced by climate change is a crucial...
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