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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-113
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
02 May 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Planar Seismic Source Characterization Models Developed for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Istanbul
Zeynep Gülerce1, Kadir Buğra Soyman1, Barış Güner2, and Nuretdin Kaymakci3 1Department of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, 06800, Turkey
2Department of Nuclear Safety, Turkish Atomic Energy Authority, Ankara, 06510, Turkey
3Department of Geological Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, 06800, Turkey
Abstract. This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, Central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g. b-value, maximum magnitude, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully-documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

Citation: Gülerce, Z., Soyman, K. B., Güner, B., and Kaymakci, N.: Planar Seismic Source Characterization Models Developed for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Istanbul, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-113, in review, 2017.
Zeynep Gülerce et al.
Zeynep Gülerce et al.
Zeynep Gülerce et al.

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This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully-documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.
This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be...
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