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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-257
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
28 Oct 2016
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.
Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050
Kuo Li and Jie Pan Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS, Beijing, China
Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

Citation: Li, K. and Pan, J.: Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-257, 2016.
Kuo Li and Jie Pan
Kuo Li and Jie Pan

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Short summary
The risk of meteorological drought in whole China in the future (2016-2050) under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) is accomplished. It is meaningful to integrate the hazard assessment and vulnerability evaluation together. A feasible method of combining the physical factors and social-economic factors together to assess drought disasters is established. The spatial distributions of drought risk are accomplished under RCP scenarios based on PRECIS.
The risk of meteorological drought in whole China in the future (2016-2050) under four emission...
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