Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
06 Mar 2015
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). A final paper in NHESS is not foreseen.
Landslide susceptibility mapping in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq: a comparison of different statistical models
A. A. Othman1,2,3, R. Gloaguen1,3, L. Andreani1,3, and M. Rahnama1,3 1Remote Sensing Group, Institute of Geology, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Bernhard-von-Cotta-Str. 2, 09596 Freiberg, Germany
2Iraq Geological Survey, Al-Andalus Square, Baghdad, Iraq
3Remote Sensing Group, Helmholtz Institute Freiberg of Resource Technology, Halsbrueckerstr. 34, 09599 Freiberg, Germany
Abstract. During the last decades, expansion of settlements into areas prone to landslides in Iraq has increased the importance of accurate hazard assessment. Susceptibility mapping provides information about hazardous locations and thus helps to potentially prevent infrastructure damage due to mass wasting. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare frequency ratio (FR), weight of evidence (WOE), logistic regression (LR) and probit regression (PR) approaches in combination with new geomorphological indices to determine the landslide susceptibility index (LSI). We tested these four methods in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq, where landslides occur frequently. For this purpose, we evaluated 16 geomorphological, geological and environmental predicting factors mainly derived from the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER) satellite. The available reference inventory includes 351 landslides representing a cumulative surface of 3.127 km2. This reference inventory was mapped from QuickBird data by manual delineation and partly verified by field survey. The areas under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and relative landslide density (R index) show that all models perform similarly and that focus should be put on the careful selection of proxies. The results indicate that the lithology and the slope aspects play major roles for landslide occurrences. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that using hypsometric integral as a prediction factor instead of slope curvature gives better results and increases the accuracy of the LSI.

Citation: Othman, A. A., Gloaguen, R., Andreani, L., and Rahnama, M.: Landslide susceptibility mapping in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq: a comparison of different statistical models, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,, 2015.
A. A. Othman et al.
A. A. Othman et al.


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