Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
04 Aug 2014
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript for further review has not been submitted.
Safe-economical route model of a ship to avoid tropical cyclones using dynamic forecast environment
L. Wu1,2,3, Y. Wen1,3, D. Wu1,3, J. Zhang1,3, and C. Xiao1,3 1Hubei Inland Shipping Technology Key Laboratory, Wuhan, China
2Department of Earth Science, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
3School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
Abstract. In heavy sea conditions related to tropical cyclones (TCs), losses to shipping caused by capsizing are greater than other kinds of accidents. Therefore, it is important to consider capsizing risk in the algorithms used to generate safe-economic routes that avoid tropical cyclones (RATC). A safe-economic routing and assessment model for RATC, based on a dynamic forecasting environment, is presented in this paper. In the proposed model, a ship's risk is quantified using its capsizing probability caused by heavy wave conditions. Forecasting errors in the numerical models are considered in the ship risk assessment according to their distribution characteristics. A case study shows that: the economic cost of RATCs is associated not only to the ship's speed, but also to the acceptable capsizing probability which is related with the ship's characteristic and the cargo loading condition. Case study results demonstrate that the optimal routes obtained from the model proposed in this paper are superior to those produced by traditional methods.

Citation: Wu, L., Wen, Y., Wu, D., Zhang, J., and Xiao, C.: Safe-economical route model of a ship to avoid tropical cyclones using dynamic forecast environment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,, in review, 2014.
L. Wu et al.
Interactive discussionStatus: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
RC C2331: 'Referee report: nhess-2014-206', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Oct 2014 Printer-friendly Version 
RC C3350: 'Referee's comment on nhessd-2-4907-2014-print', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Feb 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
L. Wu et al.
L. Wu et al.


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