Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-7497-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
16 Dec 2013
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The revised manuscript was not accepted.
An attempt to deal with flash floods using a probabilistic hydrological nowcasting chain: a case study
F. Silvestro1, N. Rebora1, and G. Cummings2 1CIMA research foundation, Savona, Italy
2Hydrometeorological Service, Ministry of Agriculture, Georgetown, Guyana
Abstract. The forecast of flash floods is sometimes impossible. In the last two decades, Numerical Weather Prediction Systems have become increasingly reliable with very relevant improvements in terms of quantitative precipitation forecasts. However, some types of events, those that are intense and localized in small areas, are still very difficult to predict. In many cases meteorological models fail to predict the volume of precipitable water at the large scale. Despite the application of modern probabilistic chains that uses precipitation downscaling algorithms in order to forecast the streamflow, some significant flood events remain unpredicted. This was also the case with an event which occurred on 8 and 9 June 2011 in the eastern part of the Liguria Region, Italy. This event affected in particular the Entella basin, which is quite a small watershed that flows into the Mediterranean Sea.

The application of a hydrological nowcasting chain as a tool for predicting flash-floods in small and medium size basins with an anticipation time of a few hours (2–5) is here presented. This work investigated the "behaviour" of the chain in the cited event and how it could be exploited for operational purposes. The results in this particular case were encouraging.


Citation: Silvestro, F., Rebora, N., and Cummings, G.: An attempt to deal with flash floods using a probabilistic hydrological nowcasting chain: a case study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-7497-2013, 2013.
F. Silvestro et al.
F. Silvestro et al.

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