Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1857-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
14 May 2013
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The revised manuscript was not accepted.
Safe-economical route and its assessment model of a ship to avoid tropical cyclones using dynamic forecast environment
L. C. Wu1,2, Y. Q. Wen1,2, and D. Y. Wu1,2 1School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
2Hubei Inland Shipping Technology Key Laboratory, Wuhan, China
Abstract. In heavy sea conditions related to tropical cyclones (TCs), losses to shipping caused by capsizing are greater than other kinds of accidents. Therefore, it is important to consider capsizing risk in the algorithms used to generate safe-economic routes that avoid tropical cyclones (RATC). A safe-economic routing and assessment model for RATC, based on a dynamic forecasting environment, is presented in this paper. In the proposed model, a ship's risk is quantified using its capsizing probability caused by heavy wave conditions. Forecasting errors in the numerical models are considered according to their distribution characteristics. A case study shows that: the economic cost of RATCs is associated not only to the ship's speed and the acceptable risk level, but also to the ship's wind and wave resistance. Case study results demonstrate that the optimal routes obtained from the model proposed in this paper are significantly superior to those produced by traditional methods.

Citation: Wu, L. C., Wen, Y. Q., and Wu, D. Y.: Safe-economical route and its assessment model of a ship to avoid tropical cyclones using dynamic forecast environment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1857-2013, 2013.
L. C. Wu et al.
L. C. Wu et al.

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