Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-92
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
06 Mar 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: A new Flood Loss Function for Italian residential structures
Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari1,2, Mattia Amadio3,4, Tuan Ngo5, and Jaroslav Mysiak3,4 1Centre for Disaster Management and Public Safety (CDMPS), Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Australia
2Bushfire & Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, Melbourne, 3002, Australia
3Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), San Giorgio Maggiore, Venice, Italy
4Ca' Foscari University, Venice Centre for Climate Studies (VICCS), Venice, Italy
5Director of the Advanced Protective Technologies for Enginee ring Structures (APTES) Group, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Australia
Abstract. The damage triggered by different flood events costs the Italian economy millions of dollars each year. This cost is likely to increase in the future due to climate variability and economic development. In order to avoid or reduce such significant financial losses, risk management requires tools which can provide a reliable estimate of potential flood impacts across the country. Flood loss functions are an internationally accepted method for estimating physical flood damage in urban areas. In this study, we derived a new Flood Loss Function for Italian residential structures (FLF-IT), on the basis of empirical damage data collected from a recent flood event in the region of Emilia–Romagna. The function was developed based on a new Australian approach (FLFA), which represents the confidence limits that exist around the parameterized functional depth–damage relationship. After model calibration, the performance of the model was also validated for the prediction of loss ratios and absolute damage values. In this regard, a three-fold cross-validation procedure was carried out over the empirical sample to measure the range of uncertainty from the actual damage data. The validation procedure shows that the newly derived function performs well (no bias and only 10 % mean absolute error). Results of these validation tests illustrate the importance of model calibration.

The advantages of the FLF-IT model over other Italian models include calibration with empirical data; consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data; and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across Italy.


Citation: Hasanzadeh Nafari, R., Amadio, M., Ngo, T., and Mysiak, J.: Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: A new Flood Loss Function for Italian residential structures, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-92, in review, 2017.
Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari et al.
Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari et al.
Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari et al.

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Short summary
Floods are frequent natural hazards in Italy, triggering significant negative consequences on the economy every year. Their impact is expected to worsen in the near future due to socio-economic development and climate variability. To be able to reduce the probability and magnitude of expected economic losses, flood risk managers need to be correctly informed about the potential damage from flood hazards. In this study, we derived a new flood loss model for Italian residential buildings.
Floods are frequent natural hazards in Italy, triggering significant negative consequences on...
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