Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-75
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
04 May 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia considering stochastic earthquake scenarios
Ario Muhammad1,2, Katsuichiro Goda1, Nicholas A. Alexander1, Widjo Kongko3, and Abdul Muhari4 1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
2Department of Civil Engineering, University of Narotama, Surabaya, 60117, Indonesia
3Agency for the Assessment & Application of Technology (BPPT), Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia
4Directorate General for Marine Spatial Management, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Jakarta, 10110, Indonesia
Abstract. This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 m and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan, including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary tsunami evacuation shelters, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps, has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation against the future tsunamigenic events.

Citation: Muhammad, A., Goda, K., Alexander, N. A., Kongko, W., and Muhari, A.: Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia considering stochastic earthquake scenarios, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-75, in review, 2017.
Ario Muhammad et al.
Ario Muhammad et al.
Ario Muhammad et al.

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Short summary
This study develops tsunami evacuation plan in Padang, Indonesia known as one of the most affected areas due to the future tsunami events generated from the Sunda subduction zone. The evacuation plan is constructed using probabilistic earthquake source modelling considering all the uncertainty of the future events. The results show that probabilistic approach may produce comprehensive tsunami hazard assessments which can be used for building more reliable and robust evacuation plans.
This study develops tsunami evacuation plan in Padang, Indonesia known as one of the most...
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