Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-71
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
15 Feb 2017
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters
Odin Marc1, Patrick Meunier2, and Niels Hovius1,3 1Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
2Ecole Normale Superieure de Paris, Laboratoire de Geologie, 75231 Paris CEDEX 5, France
3Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Abstract. We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which landslides induced by a given earthquake are distributed. The expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant critical acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for total landslide volume and area. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seimsic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor two, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include, local variations of the critical acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop or the rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

Citation: Marc, O., Meunier, P., and Hovius, N.: Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-71, in review, 2017.
Odin Marc et al.
Odin Marc et al.
Odin Marc et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 291 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
216 57 18 291 7 6 18

Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Feb 2017)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Feb 2017)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 291 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 286 with geography defined and 5 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 23 May 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
We present an analytical expression for the surface area of the region within which landslides induced by a given earthquake are distributed. The expression is based on seismological scaling laws. Without calibration the model predicts, within a factor of 2, up to 49 out of 83 cases reported in the literature and agrees with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. This model may be used for hazard assessment based on early earthquake detection parameters.
We present an analytical expression for the surface area of the region within which landslides...
Share