Assessing the extreme risk of coastal inundation due to climate change: A case study of Rongcheng, China
Aiqing Feng1,2, Jiangbo Gao1, Shaohong Wu1, Yanzhong Li2,3, and Xiliu Yue1,21Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Received: 21 Jan 2017 – Accepted for review: 26 Jan 2017 – Discussion started: 30 Jan 2017
Abstract. Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. Given the ongoing climate change, this study explored the risk of future sea-level rise on the extreme inundation by combining P-III model and losses assessment model. Taking Rongcheng as a case study, the integrated risk of extreme water levels was assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicated that the increase in total direct losses would reach an average of 60 % in 2100 as a 0.82 m sea-level rise under RCP 8.5. In addition, affected population would be increased by 4.95 % to 13.87 % and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be increased by 3.66 % to 10.95 % in 2050 while the augment of affected population and GDP in 2100 would be as twice as in 2050. Residential land and farmland would be under greater flooding risk in terms of the higher exposure and losses than other land-use types. Moreover, this study indicated that sea-level rise shortened the recurrence period of extreme water levels significantly and extreme events would become common. Consequently, the increase in frequency and possible losses of extreme flood events suggested that sea-level rise was very likely to exacerbate the extreme risk of coastal zone in future.
Feng, A., Gao, J., Wu, S., Li, Y., and Yue, X.: Assessing the extreme risk of coastal inundation due to climate change: A case study of Rongcheng, China, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-31, in review, 2017.