Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-24
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
16 Jan 2017
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper was accepted for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Performance evaluation of the national Norwegian early warning system for weather induced landslides
Luca Piciullo1, Mads-Peter Dahl2, Graziella Devoli2,3, Hervé Colleuille2, and Michele Calvello1 1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, Italy
2Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway
3Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Abstract. The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and has been designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydro-meteorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the EWS is based upon hazard threshold levels, hydro-meteorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. In the development phase of the EWS, hazard threshold levels have been obtained through statistical analyses of historical landslides and modelled hydro-meteorological parameters. Daily hydro-meteorological conditions such as rainfall, snowmelt, runoff, soil saturation, groundwater level and frost depth have been derived from a distributed version of the hydrological HBV-model. Two different landslide susceptibility maps are used as supportive data in deciding daily warning levels. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days with the possibility to update them according to the information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating landslide and warning events. This method has been principally employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning model considering fixed warning zones for issuing alerts. The original approach proposed herein allows the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable warning zones. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013–2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest and more accurate dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

Citation: Piciullo, L., Dahl, M.-P., Devoli, G., Colleuille, H., and Calvello, M.: Performance evaluation of the national Norwegian early warning system for weather induced landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-24, in review, 2017.
Luca Piciullo et al.
Luca Piciullo et al.
Luca Piciullo et al.

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Short summary
The landslide early warning system operational in Norway is managed, since 2013, by the NVE and has been designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydro-meteorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable warning zones. The performance of the warnings issued is evaluated through the adaptation of the EDuMaP method. Different performance results are observed as a function of the landslide density criterion used.
The landslide early warning system operational in Norway is managed, since 2013, by the NVE and...
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