Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-21
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
14 Mar 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
MobRISK: A model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events
Saif Shabou1,3, Isabelle Ruin1,2, Céline Lutoff3, Samuel Debionne2, Sandrine Anquetin1,2, Jean-Dominique Creutin1,2, and Xavier Beaufils2 1LTHE laboratory, University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, F-38000, France
2LTHE laboratory, CNRS, Grenoble, F-38000, France
3PACTE laboratory, University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, F-38000, France
Abstract. Recent flash flood impact studies highlight that road network is often disrupted due to adverse weather and flash flood events. Road users are thus particularly exposed to road flooding during their daily mobility. Previous exposure analysis studies, however, don't take into consideration population mobility. Recent advances in transportation research provide an appropriate framework for simulating individual travel-activity patterns using activity-based approach. These activity-based mobility models enable to predict the sequence of activities performed by individuals and locate them with a high spatial-temporal resolution. This paper describes the development of MobRISK modelling system: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to extreme hydro-meteorological events. MobRISK aims at providing an accurate spatiotemporal exposure assessment by integrating travel-activity behaviors and mobility adaptation with respect to weather disruptions. The model is applied in a flash flood prone area in Southern France to assess motorists' exposure to September 2002 flash flood event. The results show that risk of flooding is mainly located in principal road links with considerable traffic load. However, a lag time between the timing of the road submersion and persons crossing these roads contributes to reduce the potential vehicle-related fatal accidents. It is also found that socio-demographic variables have significant effect on individual exposure. Thus, the proposed model demonstrates the benefits of considering spatiotemporal dynamics of population exposure to flash floods and presents an important improvement in exposure assessment methods. Such improved characterization of road user exposures can present valuable information for flood risk management services.

Citation: Shabou, S., Ruin, I., Lutoff, C., Debionne, S., Anquetin, S., Creutin, J.-D., and Beaufils, X.: MobRISK: A model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-21, in review, 2017.
Saif Shabou et al.
Saif Shabou et al.
Saif Shabou et al.

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Short summary
This study describes the development of a model, called MobRISK, for assessing motorists' exposure to road flooding. MobRISK combines socio-demographic, travel-activity and hydro-meteorological data in order to simulate the number and the profile of exposed persons to road flooding. The first application of MobRISK in a case study in Southern France enabled the identification of the most dangerous road sections based on a spatio-temporal exposure index and the profile of most exposed people.
This study describes the development of a model, called MobRISK, for assessing motorists'...
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