Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-381
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
09 Dec 2016
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper was accepted for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Combination of empirically-based and physically-based methods to assess shallow slides susceptibility at the basin scale
Sérgio C. Oliveira, José L. Zêzere, Sara Lajas, and Raquel Melo Centre for Geographical Studies, IGOT (Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning), Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal
Abstract. Approaches used to assess shallow slides susceptibility at the basin scale are conceptually different depending on the use of empirically-based or physically-based methods. The former are sustained by the assumption that the same causes are more likely to produce the same effects, whereas the latter are based on the comparison between forces which tend to promote movement along the slope and the opposing forces that promote resistance to movement. Within this general framework, this work tests two hypotheses: (i) although conceptually and methodological distinct, the statistic and deterministic methods generate similar shallow slides susceptibility results regarding the model’s predictive capacity and spatial agreement; and (ii) the combination of shallow slides susceptibility maps obtained with empirically-based and physically-based methods, for the same study area, generate a more reliable susceptibility model for shallow slides occurrence. These hypotheses were tested in a small test site (13.9 km2) located north of Lisbon (Portugal), using a empirically-based method (the Information Value method) and a physically-based method (the Infinite Slope method). The landslide susceptibility maps produced with the statistic and deterministic methods were combined into a new landslide susceptibility map. The latter was based on a set of integration rules defined by the cross-tabulation of the susceptibility classes of both maps and analysis of the corresponding contingency tables. The results demonstrate a higher predictive capacity of the new shallow slides susceptibility map, which combines the independent results obtained with empirically-based and physically-based models. Moreover the combination of the two models allowed the identification of areas where the results of the Information Value and the Infinite Slope methods are contradictory. Thus, these areas were classified as uncertain and deserve additional investigation at a more detailed scale.

Citation: Oliveira, S. C., Zêzere, J. L., Lajas, S., and Melo, R.: Combination of empirically-based and physically-based methods to assess shallow slides susceptibility at the basin scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-381, in review, 2016.
Sérgio C. Oliveira et al.
Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
RC1: 'Comments by Referee', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC1: 'Authors reply to RC1', Sérgio C. Oliveira, 14 Mar 2017 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
RC2: 'Reviewer comment by M. Mergili', Martin Mergili, 25 Jan 2017 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC2: 'Authors reply to RC2 M. Mergili', Sérgio C. Oliveira, 14 Mar 2017 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
Sérgio C. Oliveira et al.
Sérgio C. Oliveira et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 269 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
219 39 11 269 3 10

Views and downloads (calculated since 09 Dec 2016)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 09 Dec 2016)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 269 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 269 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 23 Jun 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Approaches to assess shallow slides susceptibility at the basin scale are conceptually different depending on the use of empirically- or physically-based methods. Two hypotheses are tested: (i) both methods generate similar shallow slides susceptibility results; (ii) the combination of both susceptibility maps generate a more reliable susceptibility model. Models combination registered a higher predictive capacity and the identification of areas where the results from both models are uncertain.
Approaches to assess shallow slides susceptibility at the basin scale are conceptually different...
Share