Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-372
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
02 Dec 2016
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Empirical prediction for travel distance of channelized rock avalanches in the Wenchuan earthquake area
Weiwei Zhan, Xuanmei Fan, Runqiu Huang, Xiangjun Pei, Qiang Xu, and Weile Li State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 610059, China
Abstract. Rock avalanches are extremely rapid, massive flow-like movements of fragmented rock. The travel path of the rock avalanches may be confined by channels in some cases, which were named as the channelized rock avalanches. Channelized rock avalanches are potentially dangerous due to their hardly predictable travel distance. In this study, we constructed a dataset with detailed characteristic parameters of 38 channelized rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using the visual interpretation of remote sensing imagery, field investigation, and literature review. Based on this dataset, we assessed the influence of different factors on the runout distance and developed prediction models of the channelized rock avalanches using the multivariate regression method. The results suggested that the movement of channelized rock avalanche was dominated by the landslide volume, total relief, and channel gradient. The performance of both models was then tested with an independent validation dataset of 8 rock avalanches that induced by the 2008 Wenchuan, the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake, and heavy rainfall in 2013, showing acceptable good prediction results. Therefore, the travel distance prediction models for channelized rock avalanches constructed in this study is applicable and reliable for predicting the run out of similar rock avalanches in other regions.

Citation: Zhan, W., Fan, X., Huang, R., Pei, X., Xu, Q., and Li, W.: Empirical prediction for travel distance of channelized rock avalanches in the Wenchuan earthquake area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-372, in review, 2016.
Weiwei Zhan et al.
Weiwei Zhan et al.
Weiwei Zhan et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 282 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
244 34 4 282 1 4

Views and downloads (calculated since 02 Dec 2016)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 02 Dec 2016)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 282 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 280 with geography defined and 2 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 26 Mar 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Rock avalanches are a type of rock slope failures with massive flow-like movements of fragmented rock. They are potentially dangerous due to their strong mobility especially when they move along gullies. It is important to predict their travel distance for the purpose of hazard and risk assessment. This study built an empirical prediction model of travel distance using a detailed dataset. The model was tested by a separate dataset and proved to be useful in other regions as well.
Rock avalanches are a type of rock slope failures with massive flow-like movements of fragmented...
Share