Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-264
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
04 Oct 2016
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Verification of Pre-Monsoon Temperature Forecasts over India during 2016 with focus on Heat Wave Prediction
Harvir Singh, Kopal Arora, Raghvendra Ashrit, and En Rajagopal Ministry of Earth Sciences, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, 201309, India
Abstract. The operational medium-range weather forecasting based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are complemented by the forecast products based on Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS). This change has been recognized as an essentially useful tool for the medium range forecasting and is now finding its place in forecasting the extreme events. Here we investigate the extreme events (Heat waves) using a high-resolution numerical weather prediction and its ensemble forecast in union with the classical statistical scores to serve the verification purposes. With the advent of climate change related studies in the recent past, the rising extreme events and their plausible socio-economic effects have encouraged the need for forecasting and verification of extremes. Applying the traditional verification scores and the associated methods on both, deterministic and the ensemble forecast, we attempted to examine the performance of the ensemble based approach as compared to the traditional deterministic method. The results indicate towards an appreciable competence of the ensemble forecasting detecting extreme events (Heat waves) as compared to deterministic forecast. Locations of the events are also better captured by the ensemble model. Further, it is found that the EPS smoothes down the unexpectedly soaring signals, which thereby reduce the false alarms and thus prove to be more reliable than the deterministic forecast.

Citation: Singh, H., Arora, K., Ashrit, R., and Rajagopal, E.: Verification of Pre-Monsoon Temperature Forecasts over India during 2016 with focus on Heat Wave Prediction, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-264, in review, 2016.
Harvir Singh et al.
Harvir Singh et al.
Harvir Singh et al.

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Short summary
Heat wave conditions prevailed at over wide regions of central and northern India during March-April-May 2016. Prevailing heat wave over India took a toll more than 500 loss of lives. Here we investigate the extreme events (Heat waves) using a high-resolution numerical weather prediction and its ensemble forecast in union with the classical statistical scores to serve the verification purposes.
Heat wave conditions prevailed at over wide regions of central and northern India during...
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