Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhessd-3-7171-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
27 Nov 2015
Review status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The revised manuscript was not accepted.
Large scale landslide susceptibility assessment using the statistical methods of logistic regression and BSA – study case: the sub-basin of the small Niraj (Transylvania Depression, Romania)
S. Roşca1, Ş. Bilaşco1,2, D. Petrea1, I. Fodorean1, I. Vescan1, S. Filip1, and F.–L. Măguţ1 1"Babeş-Bolyai" University, Faculty of Geography, 400006 Cluj-Napoca, Romania
2Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca Subsidiary Geography Section, 9, Republicii Street, 400015 Cluj-Napoca, Romania
Abstract. The existence of a large number of GIS models for the identification of landslide occurrence probability makes difficult the selection of a specific one. The present study focuses on the application of two quantitative models: the logistic and the BSA models. The comparative analysis of the results aims at identifying the most suitable model. The territory corresponding to the Niraj Mic Basin (87 km2) is an area characterised by a wide variety of the landforms with their morphometric, morphographical and geological characteristics as well as by a high complexity of the land use types where active landslides exist. This is the reason why it represents the test area for applying the two models and for the comparison of the results. The large complexity of input variables is illustrated by 16 factors which were represented as 72 dummy variables, analysed on the basis of their importance within the model structures. The testing of the statistical significance corresponding to each variable reduced the number of dummy variables to 12 which were considered significant for the test area within the logistic model, whereas for the BSA model all the variables were employed. The predictability degree of the models was tested through the identification of the area under the ROC curve which indicated a good accuracy (AUROC = 0.86 for the testing area) and predictability of the logistic model (AUROC = 0.63 for the validation area).

Citation: Roşca, S., Bilaşco, Ş., Petrea, D., Fodorean, I., Vescan, I., Filip, S., and Măguţ, F. –L.: Large scale landslide susceptibility assessment using the statistical methods of logistic regression and BSA – study case: the sub-basin of the small Niraj (Transylvania Depression, Romania), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 7171-7201, doi:10.5194/nhessd-3-7171-2015, 2015.
S. Roşca et al.
Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
RC C2776: 'referee comment', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Dec 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC C3238: 'Rew 1', Sanda Rosca, 22 Feb 2016 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
RC C2886: 'Reviewer comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Jan 2016 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC C3240: 'Rew 2', Sanda Rosca, 22 Feb 2016 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
S. Roşca et al.
S. Roşca et al.

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Short summary
The present study focuses on the application of two quantitative models: the logistic and the Bivariate Statistical Analysis models. The comparative analysis of the results aims at identifying the most suitable model. The territory corresponding to the Niraj Mic Basin (87 km2) is an area characterised by a wide variety of the landforms with their morphometric, morphographical and geological characteristics as well as by a high complexity of the land use types where active landslides exist.
The present study focuses on the application of two quantitative models: the logistic and the...
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