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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhessd-3-7555-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
21 Dec 2015
Review status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The revised manuscript was not accepted.
An extended stochastic method for seismic hazard estimation
A. K. Abd el-aal1, M. A. El-Eraki2, and S. I. Mostafa2 1National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helwan, Egypt
2Geology Department, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt
Abstract. In this contribution, we developed an extended stochastic technique for seismic hazard assessment purposes. This technique depends on the hypothesis of stochastic technique of Boore (2003) "Simulation of ground motion using the stochastic method. Appl. Geophy. 160:635–676". The essential characteristics of extended stochastic technique are to obtain and simulate ground motion in order to minimize future earthquake consequences. The first step of this technique is defining the seismic sources which mostly affect the study area. Then, the maximum expected magnitude is defined for each of these seismic sources. It is followed by estimating the ground motion using an empirical attenuation relationship. Finally, the site amplification is implemented in calculating the peak ground acceleration (PGA) at each site of interest. We tested and applied this developed technique at Cairo, Suez, Port Said, Ismailia, Zagazig and Damietta cities to predict the ground motion. Also, it is applied at Cairo, Zagazig and Damietta cities to estimate the maximum peak ground acceleration at actual soil conditions. In addition, 0.5, 1, 5, 10 and 20 % damping median response spectra are estimated using the extended stochastic simulation technique. The calculated highest acceleration values at bedrock conditions are found at Suez city with a value of 44 cm s−2. However, these acceleration values decrease towards the north of the study area to reach 14.1 cm s−2 at Damietta city. This comes in agreement with the results of previous studies of seismic hazards in northern Egypt and is found to be comparable. This work can be used for seismic risk mitigation and earthquake engineering purposes.

Citation: Abd el-aal, A. K., El-Eraki, M. A., and Mostafa, S. I.: An extended stochastic method for seismic hazard estimation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 7555-7586, doi:10.5194/nhessd-3-7555-2015, 2015.
A. K. Abd el-aal et al.
Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
RC C3123: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Feb 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C3223: 'Response for Referee comments', shaimaa Mostafa, 13 Feb 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC C3243: 'Referee Comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Feb 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C3266: 'Response for Referee comments', shaimaa Mostafa, 01 Mar 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
A. K. Abd el-aal et al.
A. K. Abd el-aal et al.

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Short summary
In this work, a new extended stochastic simulation technique is developed basing on the stochastic method of Boore (2003) to simulate ground motion in order to minimize future earthquake consequences. This method is applied here to simulate the expected ground motion at some sites in the north-eastern part of Egypt. The results of the simulation give the highest hazardous effect at the south-eastern and the southern parts of the study area. The hazard is diminishes to the north of the study area
In this work, a new extended stochastic simulation technique is developed basing on the...
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