Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Kao-Ping watershed, Taiwan under climate change conditions
K. J. Shou, C. C. Wu, and J. F. Lin
Department of Civil Engineering, National Chung-Hsing University 250, Kuo-Kuang Road, Taichung, Taiwan
Received: 05 Jan 2015 – Accepted for review: 07 Jan 2015 – Discussion started: 20 Jan 2015
Abstract. Among the most critical issues, climatic abnormalities caused by global warming also affect Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary Typhoon Morakot hit Southern Taiwan on 8 August 2009 and induced serious flooding and landslides. In this study, the Kao-Ping River watershed was adopted as the study area, and the typical events 2007 Krosa Typhoon and 2009 Morakot Typhoon were adopted to train the susceptibility model. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the Kao-Ping River watershed. The rainfall estimates were introduced in the landslide susceptibility model to produce the predictive landslide susceptibility for various rainfall scenarios, including abnormal climate conditions. These results can be used for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Kao-Ping River watershed.
Shou, K. J., Wu, C. C., and Lin, J. F.: Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Kao-Ping watershed, Taiwan under climate change conditions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 575-606, doi:10.5194/nhessd-3-575-2015, 2015.