O. A. C. Hoes1, R. W. Hut1, N. C. van de Giesen1, and M. Boomgaard21Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geo Sciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands 2Water Board Hollands Noorderkwartier, Heerhugowaard, The Netherlands
Received: 19 Feb 2013 – Accepted for review: 22 Feb 2013 – Discussion started: 11 Mar 2013
Abstract. The present state-of-the-art in flood risk assessment focuses on breach models, flood propagation models, and economic modelling of flood damage. However, models need to be validated with real data to avoid erroneous conclusions. Such reference data can either be historic data, or can be obtained from controlled experiments. The inundation of the Wieringermeer polder in the Netherlands in April 1945 is one of the few examples for which sufficient historical information is available. The objective of this article is to compare the flood simulation with flood data from 1945. The context, the breach growth process and the flood propagation are explained. Key findings for current flood risk management addresses the importance of the drainage canal network during the inundation of a polder, and the uncertainty that follows from not knowing the breach growth parameters. This case study shows that historical floods provide valuable data for the validation of models and reveal lessons that are applicable in current day flood risk management.
Hoes, O. A. C., Hut, R. W., van de Giesen, N. C., and Boomgaard, M.: Reconstruction of the 1945 Wieringermeer Flood, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 417-441, doi:10.5194/nhessd-1-417-2013, 2013.