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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
22 Oct 2013
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper for further review has not been submitted.
Combining earthquakes and GPS data to estimate the probability of future earthquakes with magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0
K.-P. Chen1, Y.-B. Tsai2, and W.-Y. Chang3 1Hsin Sheng Junior College of Medical Care and Management, No. 418, Gaoping Sec., Jhongfong Rd., Longtan, Taoyuan County 32544, Taiwan
2Geosciences Department, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, One Market, Spear Tower, Suite 2400 San Francisco, CA 94105-1126, USA
3Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, NDHU, No. 1, Sec. 2, Da Hsueh Rd., Shoufeng, Hualien 97401, R.O.C., Taiwan
Abstract. According to Wyss et al. (2000) result indicates that future main earthquakes can be expected along zones characterized by low b values. In this study we combine Benioff strain with global positioning system (GPS) data to estimate the probability of future Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes for a grid covering Taiwan. An approach similar to the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate Gutenberg–Richter parameters a and b. The two parameters were then used to estimate the probability of simulating future earthquakes of Mw ≥ 6.0 for each of the 391 grids (grid interval = 0.1°) covering Taiwan. The method shows a high probability of earthquakes in western Taiwan along a zone that extends from Taichung southward to Nantou, Chiayi, Tainan and Kaohsiung. In eastern Taiwan, there also exists a high probability zone from Ilan southward to Hualian and Taitung. These zones are characterized by high earthquake entropy, high maximum shear strain rates, and paths of low b values. A relation between entropy and maximum shear strain rate is also obtained. It indicates that the maximum shear strain rate is about 4.0 times the entropy. The results of this study should be of interest to city planners, especially those concerned with earthquake preparedness. And providing the earthquake insurers to draw up the basic premium.

Citation: Chen, K.-P., Tsai, Y.-B., and Chang, W.-Y.: Combining earthquakes and GPS data to estimate the probability of future earthquakes with magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 5729-5752, doi:10.5194/nhessd-1-5729-2013, 2013.
K.-P. Chen et al.
K.-P. Chen et al.


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