Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/nhessd-1-1619-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
24 Apr 2013
Review status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The revised manuscript was not accepted.
Estimation of the effects of climate change on flood-triggered economic losses in Japan
S. Tezuka1, H. Takiguchi2, S. Kazama1, R. Sarukkalige3, A. Sato1, and S. Kawagoe4 1Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, 6-6-20, Aramaki aza aoba, Aoba ku, Sendai, 981-8579, Japan
2Department of Civil Engineering, Tohoku University, 6-6-06, Aramaki aza aoba, Aoba ku, Sendai, 981-8579, Japan
3Department of Civil Engineering, Curtin University, G.P.O. Box U1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia
4Division of Environmental System Management, Faculty of Symbiotic Systems Science, Fukushima University, 1, Kanayagawa, Fukushima, 980-1296, Japan
Abstract. This study evaluates the effects of climate change on economic losses due to flood-related damage in Japan. Three selected GCM climate data were downscaled using an analytical method that uses observed precipitation data as the reference resolution. The downscaled climate data were used to estimate extreme rainfall for different return periods. The extreme rainfall estimates were then entered into a two-dimensional (2-D) non-uniform flow model to estimate flood inundation information. A novel technique based on the land use type of the flood area was employed to estimate economic losses due to flood damage. The results of the rainfall analysis shows that at present (in 2000), the Nankai region, the area from Wakayama Prefecture to Kagoshima Prefecture and the mountains of the Japan Alps receive very high extreme rainfall. By 2050, in addition to these areas, the rainfall in the Tokai and Koshinetsu regions will be 1.2 to 1.3 times greater than at present. The flood-related economic loss estimation shows that the relationship between increased extreme rainfall and increased potential economic loss due to flood damage has a nearly linear relationship. The overall variations show that the potential economic loss is greater for the SRES-B1, A2 and A1B scenarios for all return periods. These results clearly show that flood-related economic losses in Japan will increase significantly in the future as a result of climate change.

Citation: Tezuka, S., Takiguchi, H., Kazama, S., Sarukkalige, R., Sato, A., and Kawagoe, S.: Estimation of the effects of climate change on flood-triggered economic losses in Japan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 1619-1649, doi:10.5194/nhessd-1-1619-2013, 2013.
S. Tezuka et al.
S. Tezuka et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 598 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
247 328 23 598 17 10

Views and downloads (calculated since 24 Apr 2013)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 24 Apr 2013)

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 24 May 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Share